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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright States and author ofthe report, said unemployment increasea will continue at their accelerated pace into the thircd quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statisticak Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miamui and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,00p to 7,000 jobs in the thirde quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firsrt quarter of the year, a 2 percenft decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longreliefd on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employment in the sectofr fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quarte r of this year to 36,100 by the thir quarter, a nearly 15 percent Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitint to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expecte dto decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,10o0 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firstr quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Service which includes financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projected to decreasw to 324,200 by the thirfd quarter, down from 326,700 in the firsy quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanrt time forthe region,” Traynoer said. Construction employment is expecteed to rise as a part of seasonal to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firs quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewedr than the same time period last year. One area of employment that isn’ expected to be hit hard is health care.
In Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethirc quarter, going up to 56,50p from 56,300 in the first quarter. He said the rate of decliner in gross domestic productwill slow, but remain negativ e through the third quarter and maybe into the fourth quartetr of this year. Even when GDP does become positive it will take some time for employment to pick up becauser it is a lagginv indicator ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said therd is a great deal of uncertainty stil on thenational level, as businesses try to determinre the impact of governmeng actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemploymenft is not going away anytime soon.
“This is something we’re going to be living with for quitda while, well into next year,” he
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